Hearing the message about Jesus, the Good Shepherd, leaving the other ninety-nine sheep and seeking everywhere for the lost sheep, brought him to tears! Do what it says." (James 1:22 NIV)įor years, our eldest had been convinced that he was far too lost ever to be saved, least of all, forgiven. Scripture tells us, "Do not merely listen to the word, and so deceive yourself. I felt the Holy Spirit stirring, and I knew that it was time. A snowstorm was moving in, so my husband hurried to load our car and get our son back to college safely. I wondered whether God was testing me to see if I would obey Him.īy morning, the weather report was not promising. How foolish I would appear to both my son and husband if I followed through with God's request. He asked me to share the parable of the lost sheep with our son, who was visiting, and tell him that "the Son of Man came to seek and to save the lost." (Luke 19:10 ESV)įor the rest of the night, I tossed and turned, as Satan fought to convince me that it was all just a dream. Then, just before reaching one hundred, God's voice called out my name from the shadows, asking, "If a man has a hundred sheep, and one of them has gone astray, does he not leave the ninety-nine on the mountains and go in search of the one that went astray?" (Matthew 18:12 ESV) I answered, "Yes." Then, I glanced to see if my husband was hearing God, but he was fast asleep.Īgain, God called out my name. Completely exhausted, I found myself resorting to counting imaginary sheep. The nightstand clock confirmed that it was 2 a.m., yet sleep was nowhere in sight. John 10:27 – My sheep hear my voice, and I know them, and they follow me. Listen while you read: "The Old Rugged Cross" 1 (Lyrics)
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Standard shipping, included with every order, is USPS First Class postage. This delivery date is not guaranteed, it is simply an estimate based on the shipping speed you selected. When ordering, Etsy will generate an estimated delivery date for your order. Please note that during Valentine's Day or other high volume seasons, additional processing times will apply. Our standard processing time (shipping excluded) is 1-3 business days on all regular orders, or 3-5 business days on orders which include custom handwriting. Unfortunately we cannot be held responsible for old or incorrect addresses provided by the customer. We print our shipping labels directly from your receipt, and rely on customers to review and confirm their ship-to address before placing an order. Please double-check your shipping address during the check-out process to verify that it is correct. PLEASE NOTE: Due to Covid-19 and international supply chain issues, orders may be subject to additional delays that are outside of our control. Visit Inklings on Facebook for the latest news, announcements and promotions: Interested in placing a bulk or wholesale order? Convo me and let's chat! Our collection of new designs is growing too, so check back soon! Inklings is not responsible for hold-ups at customs.ĭon't see what you're looking for? Looking for a different quantity? Just convo me and we can create a custom listing with the quantity of your choice! I would be glad to create a custom quantity for you. Please note that international customers are responsible for any applicable custom fees. Unfortunately we cannot be held responsible for incorrect addresses provided by the customer, or items that arrive after the date of your event if you decide against upgrading your shipping, or place an order without informing us of your event date. International arrival times vary depending on the destination. If you require Express shipping (1-2 days), you can upgrade here: If you require Priority shipping (2-3 days), you can upgrade here: Transit times vary depending on your location – we are located in Michigan. typically arrive at their destination within 7 - 10 business days of being shipped. First Class parcels within the continental U.S. Our standard shipping, included with every order, is USPS First Class postage. Orders are typically shipped within 3 business days after payment has been received. Scratching gently with a fingernail or penny will reveal your special message!Īpproximate assembly time: Less than 1 minute! Remove the scratch-off sticker provided from its backing, and place to completely cover your message.ģ. Write your special message within the area provided.Ģ. 1 mini hand-stamped muslin drawstring bagġ. 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At the latest with the acquisition by Facebook, concerns about data security have repeatedly become part of the public debate.Īs of May 15, new data protection rules will come into effect at Whatsapp in Germany, which will allow WhatsApp to share the data of its users with Facebook and pass it on to third parties outside the EU. This is not the first time that the social messenger service WhatsApp has come under criticism for its data protection policy. How individual messengers handle the messages, images, audio and files sent is therefore a fundamental question that every user should address. Professional and private life is shared via messenger and enables an exchange regardless of location. Digital communication has become indispensable. You can play online and offline at any time control and chess variant including Crazyhouse, Chess 960, King of the Hill, Three-check, Antichess, Atomic Chess, Horde, and Racing Kings. The lichess app is open source and free for every chess player in the world. The chess app built for the love of chess I recommend you to give it a try and make use of their free Premium membership trial to test the waters before making any purchase decision. I have used, as a Diamond member, for a while, and I have to say that it is worth it for most chess players. also rewards its members if they become better chess players since Diamond memberships are offered for free to FIDE titled players. On the other hand, if you are an avid chess player that plans to spend hours a day doing tactics and watching educational video lessons, you are more than welcome to scale up to the Diamond membership. Unfortunately, the video libraries are only available to Diamond members. Some other perks are the three available lessons per week and the game report and analysis feature, which lets you analyze your online games. It offers 25 puzzles and five puzzle rushes per day. In my opinion, the Gold membership is just enough for most chess players. Video lessons and game reports and analysis are only available to gold and diamond members.Īs of May 2020, the gold and diamond memberships cost 6.99 USD per month or 49.99 USD per year and 14.99 USD per month or 99.99 USD per year, respectively. You are only allowed to solve five chess puzzles and one puzzle rush a day. However, the usage of the app is limited without paying a membership. It also offers puzzles, lessons, videos, computer analysis, and articles that are available in both the app and the website. You can play chess for free against one of its millions of users at any time control and chess variant. The chess app by is a well-rounded app in which you can do almost any chess-related activity. Very limited usability (if not premium). 3 The analysis required to determine such a relationship turns directly upon whether the financial distress of one counterparty is likely to impair the ability of other bank counterparties to make good on their liabilities to the bank. As part of the proposed rules, whenever a bank holding company's net credit exposure to an unaffiliated counterparty exceeds 5% of the bank's eligible capital, the bank must determine whether the counterparty is economically interdependent with any of the bank's other unaffiliated counterparties. Related to the first point, the Fed has recently proposed an update to the rules governing SCCLs for US bank holding companies and foreign banking organizations with at least $50 billion in total consolidated assets. Two other regulatory applications include single counterparty credit limits (SCCL) and compliance issues related to the "living will" portion of Dodd-Frank. While the counterparty default scenario that forms the focus of this article is a key regulatory application of CRC, it is not the only one. Regulatory Context: Other Applications of CRC After discussing other regulatory applications of CRC and providing a brief methodology overview, the case study illustrates the effects that different counterparty and systemic risk events could have for a select group of major US banks under alternative paths for the macroeconomy. EDF forecasts under these scenarios, obtained from Stressed EDF, are modified in response to the default of a small set of counterparties in a way that allows credit risk shocks to propagate more strongly when bank interconnectedness is high. Here, I illustrate the use of the Credit Risk Cascades tool via a case study for US financial firms under the CCAR 2016 baseline and severely adverse macroeconomic scenarios. Using a dynamic network model to obtain PD forecasts under the counterparty shock relative to an appropriate no-shock baselineĪdjusting the Stressed EDFs to take into account the network model results Using Moody's Stressed EDF to obtain EDF paths under a user-selected economic scenario This is accomplished with the following techniques: 2 The CRC model incorporates these three main effects:ĭirect dependence of PD forecasts on the economic scenarioĬredit risk spillovers via network linkagesĪ user-specified path for financial sector interconnectedness In this article, I introduce a new model – Credit Risk Cascades (CRC) – that forecasts PDs of financial institutions under compound scenarios involving economic, counterparty, and systemic risk components. The banking industry needs a streamlined quantitative tool to facilitate stress testing under compound scenarios. In fact, some large banks that conduct sophisticated "war game" exercises as part of their risk management activities already think in these terms, but lack a model that allows a fully coherent evaluation of such shocks together. Tarullo has recently gone on record stating that he ".envisions the stress-testing process moving beyond just examining the performance of individual banks' capital levels under stress and also include the interconnection of institutions under stress as well." 1 When forecasting probability of default (PD) for such purposes, banks require a model that seamlessly integrates macroeconomic, counterparty, and systemic risk projections. In fact, as reported in American Banker, Fed governor Daniel K. For eight bank holding companies, the Fed now requires layering a counterparty default scenario onto standard CCAR exercises, and has recently suggested that next-generation stress tests could feature shocks to bank interconnectedness. 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He has, however, participated in the annual Taco Bell All-Star Legends and Celebrity Softball Game while wearing an Oakland Athletics cap to represent the American League.īurrell continued his education by graduating from McClymonds High School in Oakland in 1980 and enrolling in undergraduate communications classes. Hammer, a high school second baseman, aspired to be a professional baseball player but was cut from a San Francisco Giants tryout. He earned the moniker "M.C." as a "Master of Ceremonies" while on the road with the A's and later in the military. Finley, who resided in Chicago, employed the child as his "eyes and ears." On ESPN's First Take in 2010, Hammer discussed his lifelong relationship with athletes and revealed that his brother Louis Burrell Jr., who would later become Hammer's business manager, was the batboy, taking calls and providing "play-by-plays" for the A's absentee owner during each summer game. From 1973 to 1980, Burrell worked as a "batboy" for the team. Finley hired him as a clubhouse assistant and batboy. The Burrells used to go to thoroughbred horse races and eventually became owners of multiple graded stakes horses and winners of several of them.ĭue to the 11-year-energy old's and flair, Oakland A's team owner Charles O. According to his memories, a three-bedroom apartment in a housing project was home to six youngsters. He grew up impoverished in East Oakland, sharing an apartment with his mother, a secretary, and eight siblings. His father worked as a warehouse supervisor and a professional poker player and gambling casino manager at Oaks Card Club's cardroom. In Oakland, California, Stanley Kirk Burrell was born. Known for his meteoric rise to fame, Hammer is renowned for songs such as "UCan'tTouchThis" and "2Legit2Quit," flashy dance moves, choreography, and his eponymousHammerpants. 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